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RANGE

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Numbers built by someone who has run the P&L they’re modeling.

Most hospitality pro formas are works of optimism. A ramp that’s too fast, a labor line that only holds in theory, a build-out number that was never going to survive the first change order. We build models grounded in how restaurants actually perform: real unit economics, honest build-out and ramp assumptions, and the downside cases most operators would rather not run. The math is only as good as the operating judgment behind it, and ours comes from owning the P&L, not modeling someone else’s.

Whether you’re sizing a new unit, restructuring a P&L that’s drifted, or walking into a capital conversation, we build the clarity to make the call with confidence, and the version of the numbers a sophisticated investor will actually believe.

Tell us what’s breaking.

Take the Diagnostic

Thirty to forty-five minutes, with the Straight Read back within 48 hours.

Scope of Work

  • —Unit-level P&L development and analysis
  • —New unit pro forma and investment modeling
  • —Break-even and sensitivity analysis
  • —Cash flow modeling and working-capital planning
  • —Scenario planning (base, upside, downside)
  • —Capital raise preparation and investor materials

Where the assumptions came from, if anyone knows.

One cell usually carries the whole model: a growth rate typed in by hand, no note on where it came from, three tabs of math resting on top of it. The answer was set before the model was built, and the inputs were fitted to reach it. So the operator ends up with a model they can present and can’t quite believe.

We rebuild it from the operating floor up: real unit economics, every assumption traceable to something that actually happened, and the downside cases most would rather skip. Ramp is where most models lie first, so that’s where the build starts: a curve built off how units actually fill (the twelve-to-eighteen-month runway to stabilized volume, not a straight line to target sales by month three); debt-service coverage modeled against that real ramp instead of stabilized-year numbers, so the business doesn’t get starved of cash in month six chasing a covenant built for month eighteen; and working-capital drawdown mapped against the build-out and opening timeline, so cash needs are known before they’re urgent.

A model that skips any of these three usually looks fine on the summary tab and fails the moment someone stress-tests it. You leave with numbers you can act on and defend: the version you’d stake your own capital on, and the version a lender or investor will believe.

The record is on Selected Outcomes.

How it works

StepWhat happens
01Build the ramp curve off how units actually fill
02Model debt-service coverage against that ramp
03Map working capital to the build-out timeline
04Run the downside case nobody wants to see
05Deliver the version a lender will believe

Before

The pro forma shows a straight ramp to target volume and a single base case, with no real test of what happens if the first six months run behind plan.

After

The model runs on a realistic ramp curve with debt-service and working-capital mapped against it, plus a real downside case, so the numbers hold up under a lender’s or investor’s questions.

Further Reading

Prime cost: the number that decides whether you can scale

Free Tool

Run your own numbers: the multi-unit prime cost calculator

Common Questions

What makes a restaurant financial model credible to investors?

Operating judgment, not spreadsheet polish. A model an investor believes is one whose assumptions survive scrutiny: a ramp that matches how units actually fill, a labor line that holds at real volume, a build-out number with contingency in it, and a downside case that’s genuinely run. We build from how the operation performs, so the numbers hold up when someone who knows the business starts asking questions.

When should we build a pro forma or financial model?

Before any decision with capital attached: sizing a new unit, restructuring a drifted P&L, or preparing a raise. The value is in making the call with clarity instead of optimism: knowing the break-even, the sensitivities, and the downside before you commit, not after. Built early, the model is a decision tool; built late, it’s a justification for one already made.

How do you work with our existing controller or bookkeeper?

We build from your actual numbers, not around your finance team. Your controller’s data and their read on how the P&L behaves are the foundation of a credible model. The goal is a model your team can keep using and updating after we’re done, not a black box only we can maintain.

Our accountant already builds our pro forma. How is this different?

Your accountant builds the structure correctly; the question is whether the assumptions inside it reflect how a restaurant actually behaves. The operating layer is where most pro formas fail (a ramp curve built off how units really fill, a labor line that holds at true volume, a downside case that’s genuinely run), and that layer comes from operating judgment, not accounting. The two work together: their books, our assumptions, one model.

Will a lender or investor take the model seriously?

That’s the standard it’s built to: debt-service coverage modeled against the real ramp, working capital mapped to the opening timeline, and every assumption documented so you can defend it in the room without us. What no one can promise is the outcome of a credit decision; what we can promise is that the model won’t be the reason it goes badly.
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