The market read and the model, both built from what your own units have done.
In this domain: Market Intelligence & AnalysisFinancial Modeling
Every group carries one decision that outweighs the rest of the year: the next lease, the second market, the capital raise, the new concept.
Most capital mistakes in this business are made before anyone unlocks the door: the wrong market read, a pro forma built backward from the best case, a ramp no opening of yours ever hit. By the time the operation feels it, the lease is signed and the money is spent.
Tell us what’s next.
Bring the pro forma, the sites in play and your unit P&Ls.
Book a call with Jon (opens in a new tab)How the work runs
The order is fixed. The market read comes first, because it sets the volume: your nearest units’ sales, adjusted for the headcount around the site at lunch and at dinner (the offices, hotels and apartment buildings) and for who already wins the occasion you are opening for.
The model comes second, because its job is to test whether that volume clears the capital: the build-out, the pre-opening cash and the debt service, month by month. Run them the other way and the volume gets typed in until the return clears.
The model checks the downside before the base case, so every pro forma we build or review is held to five stress checks:
- A ramp of twelve to eighteen months to steady volume.
- A soft quarter tested against debt service.
- Cannibalization priced in for any site near existing units.
- The labor model at the wages you will pay.
- Rent escalators run against year-three volume.
A pro forma that clears all five is worth signing against. One that fails any of them gets rebuilt first.
After we step out, your director of operations or finance lead keeps the market read running on your open units, monthly and quarterly. The model stays with your team, built so a lender’s or an investor’s follow-up gets answered without a call to us.
Where groups call us
You are deciding on instinct at a size that punishes it
Instinct got the group here, and instinct still signs the leases. That worked while every new site sat a few miles from a unit you already ran. Now the sites sit in new markets with bigger build-outs, and one wrong lease ties up capital for its whole term.
Before any site is toured, we name how restaurants fail in the new market: a wage floor, a price ceiling, a seasonal trough. Then we build the model underneath the instinct and run every return with the loan and without it, so your judgment has a number to check against.
The consolidated P&L is hiding the unit that is losing money
Blended margins look acceptable, and underneath them one location has lost money for two quarters. Consolidated books are kept for the lender and the tax return, and they average that unit into the others.
We rebuild the reporting unit by unit with your accounting team: prime cost and restaurant-level profit for each location, every period. A unit that slips shows up in the period it slips, and the next pro forma is built from numbers you can check.
Who runs it
RANGE was founded by Jon Peck, who spent twenty years running multi-unit restaurant groups: eight brands built and scaled, twelve openings across six concepts in three years, and more than $100 million of annual P&L owned.
If this is what’s next, bring it.
The call works out where the work starts.
Book a call with Jon (opens in a new tab)Capabilities
Common questions
How is this different from the study or pro forma we already have?
What makes a restaurant pro forma credible?
Do you do restaurant feasibility studies before a lease is signed?
Other domains
- Operations The operation, built to run without you.
- People & Leadership Build the bench before you need it.
- Brand & Growth Grow without breaking what works.
- Development & Expansion Plan the build from opening day back.
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